Ag Weather Forum              05/16 07:00

   Ohio Valley at Risk of Severe Weather Event Friday

   A pristine environment ahead of a strong cold front will contribute to a 
good chance for widespread severe weather on Friday, May 16.

John Baranick
Staff Meteorologist

   A strong storm system in the Northern Plains is creating strong winds and 
produced a round of severe weather across the western Great Lakes on Thursday, 
May 15. But the storm has at least one more round of severe weather to dish 
out, and the setup with this one is better than most.

   Widespread, severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop from northeast 
Texas through the Midwest throughout the day, with a particular focus on 
severity across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. All hazards are on the table, 
including multiple tornadoes and hurricane-force winds.

   Thunderstorms have already occurred early Friday morning, and some of them 
have been strong, with some hail noted in a few cells from northern Arkansas to 
northern Kentucky. These storms are forecast to dissipate through the morning. 
In their wake, they will leave behind a nearly pristine environment to produce 
severe thunderstorms.

   Ahead of a cold front that stretches from northern Texas into Michigan early 
Friday morning, temperatures are well into the 70s and are forecast to approach 
90 degrees Fahrenheit in some locations this afternoon. Widespread dew points 
in the 60s to lower 70s F are leading to some juicy surface conditions and are 
priming the region for a major severe weather event.

   Storms may fire before noon across the Ozarks and expand north and south 
from there throughout the rest of the afternoon and evening. Tapping into the 
fantastic environment, thunderstorms may start as individual cells with a risk 
of all severe hazards including tornadoes and massive hail. Clustering is 
likely to occur rather quickly, and multiple clusters are forecast to traverse 
the area this afternoon and evening. These clusters also have a tendency to 
produce tornadoes along their leading edge, further increasing the concern;, 
but the clusters also transition the threat to more of a strong wind event. 
Hurricane-force winds (greater than 74 mph) are forecast with any clusters that 
develop. These clusters may not make the definition of a derecho, a long-lived 
windstorm with consistent winds over 58 mph, traveling at least a 250-mile 
path, and at least several of those wind gusts exceeding 74 mph. But 
destruction can occur, nonetheless.

   The Storm Prediction Center gives this risk a moderate classification, or a 
four out of five on their severity index, indicating a very good chance for 
widespread severe storms to develop later Friday. Folks in these areas should 
pay special attention to the weather as there could be multiple rounds of it 
throughout the day.

   To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over 
to https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/weather/interactive-map

   John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com




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