Ag Weather Forum              06/17 08:44

   Another Severe Weather Event Wednesday for the Midwest

   Severe weather has been intense and frequent across the Midwest over the 
last 10 days. That continues on Wednesday with a big event forecast.

John Baranick
Staff Meteorologist

   Another big severe weather event is forecast for the Midwest for Wednesday, 
June 17. Two distinct rounds of severe weather are looking likely, which will 
lead to another all-hazards type of event throughout the day.

   The event actually started during the overnight and early morning hours on 
Wednesday. A compact upper-air disturbance moved into the Upper Midwest and met 
with a return of hot and humid low-to-mid level air over Iowa where a cluster 
of thunderstorms has erupted early this morning. As of 8 a.m. CDT, the cluster 
was crossing the border into northern Illinois. So far, a couple of 
hurricane-force wind reports have been noted in eastern Iowa. As the cluster 
continues southeast this morning across northern and central Illinois and 
possibly into central Indiana, a continuation of strong wind gusts appears very 
likely. More hurricane-force winds will be likely. A few embedded tornadoes 
will be possible as well.

   The second severe weather event of the day is a little more conditional, but 
still very likely to occur. As the upper-level disturbance moves deeper into 
the Midwest, it will pull more hot and humid air northward. This will meet the 
system's cold front Wednesday afternoon from far eastern Kansas through 
northern Indiana, resulting in a broken line of supercell thunderstorms by 
mid-afternoon. With supercells, all hazards are on the table, but they increase 
the likelihood of massive hail and strong, long-track tornadoes.

   For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has marked an area of 
moderate severe weather on their outlook for this morning. The SPC only 
produces moderate risks of severe weather about a dozen times a year, making 
this event likely to be significant. What makes this a more conditional threat 
is the early thunderstorms that could use up a lot of energy. However, the SPC 
agrees with models that the influx of hot and humid air will be more than 
sufficient to produce intense supercell thunderstorms this afternoon and 
evening.

   The primary threats should diminish after sunset, but some stronger wind 
gusts may continue south into southern Missouri and along the Ohio River 
overnight. Additional strong thunderstorms may pop up behind this line across 
Iowa through southern Michigan, or ahead of the line in southeastern Michigan 
and western Ohio, with damaging wind gusts and maybe a couple of tornadoes 
possible as well.

   The Midwest has been in the crosshairs for severe weather throughout the 
first half of July already. On June 10, severe weather was sufficient enough to 
declare a derecho across northern Illinois where several tornadoes were 
embedded within a line of thunderstorms that also produced hurricane-force wind 
gusts. The tornado threat was then magnified across Illinois and Indiana on 
June 11. Additional severe thunderstorms have rolled across the region since 
June 5. This is all a part of a busy weather pattern due to the building El 
Nino in the Pacific Ocean. Rounds of severe weather will be likely throughout 
the summer.

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   John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.comA




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