South America Calling         01/30 13:40

   Soil Moisture Not Where It Needs to Be for Brazil's Coming Safrinha Corn Crop

   Rainfall has been good enough for soybeans, but not for building soil 
moisture for the coming safrinha corn crop.

John Baranick
Staff Meteorologist

   Much of the weather focus in South America recently has been on Argentina 
and its overall lack of rainfall during the last several weeks. That is still 
an important factor to consider when looking at South American corn and soybean 
production for the 2025-26 crop year. But things are changing in Brazil and 
some of the focus needs to be shifted there as the first crop soybeans are 
harvested and the second-season (safrinha) corn crop gets planted.

   Precipitation patterns in Brazil so far this season have not been all that 
great. Waves of showers started in late September, but then went absent for 
early October and were only sporadic throughout November and December. The 
daily scattered showers and thunderstorms that are being seen across most of 
the country have been erratic and inconsistent. Periods of dryness have 
occurred, and that has induced some heat stress at times.

   However, the rain has been more consistent during January, and while many 
areas are still lacking in overall rainfall amounts when compared to normal, 
the soybean crop has largely done well. Very few areas have reported damage due 
to dryness.

   That is not to say that there are none -- some areas around the southern end 
of the country, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul, have not seen the consistent 
showers in January. But the conditions reported by most agencies suggest a 
fairly good soybean crop in Brazil. Most are calling for record production. But 
just because soybeans had enough rainfall does not mean that the safrinha corn 
crop will reap the same benefits.

   As the calendar turns to February, soybean harvest will speed up. There are 
estimates that about 5-10% of the total soybean crop has been harvested 
already, including more than 15% in the country's largest production state of 
Mato Grosso. Corn is immediately planted after the soybeans are harvested, with 
some large producers opting to follow their giant combines with a large planter 
to make good use of some dry time between rains.

   During the next three weeks, the country should reach about 60% completed on 
corn planting, and Mato Grosso should lead the way at about 80%. If these 
benchmarks are not met, a significant portion of the corn crop risks running 
into the dry season at the end of April before pollination, a potentially 
disastrous result. That would be made worse if the soil moisture situation 
doesn't improve either.

   When looking at various satellite estimates, the heavier rains lately have 
not improved soil moisture dramatically. Many areas are still below normal with 
soil moisture, with only a few dotted areas with near- or above-normal amounts 
scattered from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais.

   Large sections of the country's primary safrinha corn areas are labelled as 
having 50% or less of the normal soil moisture, including Mato Grosso do Sul 
and Parana. If the wet season rainfall ends early, or even if it shuts down on 
time, the lower soil moisture situation could be a problem for either 
pollinating or, more likely, filling corn kernels. This situation will need to 
be monitored closely, even if planting is on schedule and rains are frequent.

   Most of the country needs to see above-normal rainfall during the next two 
months to see improvements in the outlook, and long-range forecasts are not 
calling for that to be on the table. DTN is forecasting overall below-normal 
rainfall through March, even if a couple of weeks here or there produce 
above-normal rainfall.

   To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from 
DTN, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/weather/interactive-map.

   John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com




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