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01/27 14:29 CST Sean Payton's gamble: The decision that derailed the Broncos'
Super Bowl dreams
Sean Payton's gamble: The decision that derailed the Broncos' Super Bowl dreams
By ARNIE STAPLETON
AP Pro Football Writer
DENVER (AP) --- With a blizzard bearing down on Empower Field at Mile High,
coach Sean Payton went for the jugular instead of the points, short-circuiting
the Denver Broncos' drive to Super Bowl 60.
"There will always be second thoughts," Payton said in the anguished aftermath
of Denver's 10-7 loss to the New England Patriots in the AFC championship
Sunday.
Backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham's first completion in 749 days was a 52-yard
dart to Marvin Mims Jr. that set up Courtland Sutton's 6-yard touchdown catch
in the first quarter. Stidham drove the Broncos to the Patriots' doorstep again
early in the second quarter and the stadium was rocking with the thought of the
franchise's ninth Super Bowl berth and first in a decade.
Payton called a timeout on fourth-and-1 at the New England 14. But instead of
sending out Wil Lutz for a 31-yard field goal attempt --- two yards shorter
than an extra point --- Payton kept his offense on the field, and not to try to
draw the Patriots offside, either.
His first intention was a run up the middle behind the NFL's highest-paid
offensive line, one that features a pair of All-Pros in right guard Quinn
Meinerz and left tackle Garett Bolles, but Payton opted to have his backup QB,
the one with one career victory in six NFL seasons, run a bootleg right and
throw the ball.
Stidham could have found wide receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey open over the
middle, but he keyed in on running back R.J. Harvey. And when Stidham was
pressured, he threw the ball at Harvey's feet incomplete.
Instead of a two-score lead over an opponent that had managed a measly 12 yards
of offense to that point and with nasty weather on the horizon, the Broncos saw
their early momentum evaporate along with the first-half sunshine.
The Broncos never got inside the New England 30-yard line again.
"Hindsight, the initial run thought was a better decision," Payton said.
"There's always regrets. Look, I felt like here we are fourth-and-1. I felt
close enough. Also, it's a call you make based on the team you are playing and
what you are watching on the other side of the ball. But, there will always be
second thoughts."
Pundits, critics and commentators have been scrutinizing Payton ever since.
"Go up 10-0. Keep the momentum," ESPN analyst Booger McFarland said. "Because
you did your homework before the game. You knew the weather was going to turn
nasty. Even though Wil Lutz is a good kicker, it was going to be tough to kick
in inclement weather. I thought this was a poor coaching decision and move by
Sean Payton.
"If you're going to go for it, how about run the ball?" McFarland added. "I
mean, it's fourth and 3 feet. Or a 31-yard field goal. Instead, you go
reverse-pivot with a quarterback making his first start."
Mark Schlereth, NFL analyst for Fox Sports, said on "The Dan Patrick Show" that
he was in Peyton Manning's suite at the game with Manning, Mike Shanahan and
Brandon Stokley. He said they all figured Payton would send out his kicker to
make it a two-score game.
"You've got a backup quarterback, you've got a chance to go up 10-0 and your
defense is balling out of control," Schlereth said. "All of us were in
agreement at that point: just kick the field goal, just kick the field goal.
And you come out with a little roll-out pass and it was a debacle to begin with.
"And plus, at that point, you hadn't run the ball for 2 inches. So, it's not
like you feel like, hey man, they're really going to respect our run game.
They're really going to respect what we're doing here as an offense so we're
just going to run the QB sneak or we're just going to run some power down the
middle or iso and really smash-mouth these people. They were kicking our
(behind) up front.
"So, I was like, kick the field goal, take the points, man, 10-0 is a big
score, especially with the weather report that it was going to get nasty in the
second half."
Patrick brought up the trend of NFL coaches going for it on fourth down ---
they're 25 of 51 in the playoffs so far.
"It almost seems like you're a failure if you don't go for it on fourth down
and you take the field goal and you leave four points out there," he said. "But
I don't know if the data is able to show, well, who's my quarterback? Who am I
going against? What are the conditions? What time of the game am I doing all of
this stuff?"
Schlereth is old school; he hates the analytics that have become such a
prominent part of the game.
McFarland also questioned Rams coach Sean McVay's decision to go for it with
just under five minutes remaining on fourth-and-4 at the Seattle 6 with Los
Angeles trailing 31-27 in the NFC championship. McFarland argued McVay should
have sent out Harrison Mevis for a chip-shot field goal. Instead, Matthew
Stafford threw incomplete and when the Rams got the ball back in the waning
seconds, they needed a TD, not a field goal, to win.
Make it a one-point game and "now you put the pressure back on Seattle's
offense," McFarland said. "And so now, if you're Seattle's offense, and if you
go three-and-out or (the Rams) get a ball back, we don't need to drive for a
touchdown. We've got a kicker that can kick a 50-yarder. And we're on turf, so
we don't have to worry about the footing. And so now, the pressure goes back to
Seattle's offense to keep the football."
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Behind the Call analyzes the biggest decisions in the NFL.
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